Safe to say I think Ikea’s version of instant sunshine is a little bit different than the rest of us…
Well, the Israeli response so far appears to be quite tiny.
Feels a bit like a small child having a tantrum and showing they can do what they want to do, whilst also desperately trying not to get in trouble with mummy and daddy.
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If the Israelis sent one missile, and it got through, that would be quite the message.
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That seems to be what has happened. It’s a good warning really without escalating too much. We can hit you at any time, any where, so stop with this stupidness.
The question now is how will Iran act. Will they see this as a ‘rightful defence’, or will they see this as a new, unrelated attack, and then escalate further?
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We should take into account that Iran considers Israel to have struck their sovereign territory first by attacking their (annex to their) embassy in Damascus. If they don’t respond then, given the above, what message does that send?
From that viewpoint, it’s more difficult to view even such a small attack as a legitimate response to the prior mass drone attack.
However, there’s also not much Iran can no do directly - Israel & allies have proven that the Israeli defence structures are stronger than the Iranian attacking capability against Israeli territory.
I think there will be further attacks by Iran, but using non-traditional methods such as cyber attacks and exerting further control over civilian maritime traffic, both near Iran and also Yemen through their influence of the Houthis.
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Moving here as a bit more relevant.
There’s always been a bit of a “boycott Israel” faction for Eurovision. this year there is greater profile due to everything else.
I think the main difference between the Russia/ukraine situation & Israel/Gaza
- Russia invaded unprovoked an established sovereign state.
- Both Russia & Ukraine are members of the EBU
- Israel/Gaza situation was initiated by Hamas attacking Israel (including at music peace conference ironically)
- Gaza/Palastine is not an independent sovereign state
-Palestine is not a separate member of EBU
So it makes if a little tricker for the EBU to take action against a participating country without taking a political stance.
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International arrest warrants issued for Israeli PM and head of Hamas.
Good.
All nation states need to enforce arrests when opportunity presents itself, or the whole system crumbles.
Commit war crimes, win bad prizes. Pointing to someone else committing war crimes doesn’t get you off the hook.
If I understand correctly, the ICC Prosecutor has applied to the court for the arrest warrants and this now has to be scrutinised by a panel of judges. They will be the ones who decide on if the warrants are issued or not. It seems a way off a final decision yet. Politics will no doubt come in very soon. Biden is not happy.
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Biden really lost some respect from me. As time goes on he’s becoming more senile and stubbornly immoveable on his Israel stance. Read the room, Joe…
Biden knows he’ll still get the votes from the left as there’s no other option (if anyone in America is really on the left). But the right are generally rabidly pro-Israel so if he wants to attract voters from Trump he needs to support Israel.
Then the USA have historically been very cautious about the International Criminal Court, refusing to ratify the Treaty of Rome. In part this is because they have concerns about their own leaders being indicated for war crimes.
“Cautious” is certainly one way to describe The Hague Invasion Act (informal name)
So true and so sad.
This narrative about the injustice of comparing a democratic state with a bunch of terrorists is so old.
Democratic states can also commit war crimes or otherwise make poor decisions that aren’t in the interest of the average Joe or planet. This isn’t the purview of terrorists.
The fact our government and some allies are undermining the ICC process is shameful and further contributes to undermining our security.
Once you’ve undermined process and the checks and balances in place, you lose the ability to be objective. Everything descends into anarchy, just as the advent of “alternative facts” has had such a negative impact on political discourse.
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Separate to the ICC point (I’m in agreement that the independence of the court is absolutely essential and the undermining must stop), I note the ample reports that a few countries intend to recognise Palestine as a state over the next week or so.
Am I the only person a little disappointed by this?
Ultimately, the conflict this time round began with a huge terror attack. I feel as though recognising Palestinian statehood sends the message that terrorism is effective. Quite surprised to see this from Spain in particular, given their relatively recent fight against ETA.
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No, you’re not the only one.
Unless this is a well thought through plan to undermine Hamas by recognising the Fatah regime in the West Bank only, as a reward to Fatah for not being involved in the 7 October atrocities, it would effectively reward acts of terrorism.
The trouble is that this is already the case de jure - Fatah/PLO are the only internationally recognised administrators of the territories. I just can’t see what this statehood approach aims to achieve, let alone what it will actually accomplish.
Without going through the whole “must condemn terror attacks before making other points” issue, this is not an isolated problem.
It’s very easy to look at this broader issue in anll its complexity and see that the status quo isn’t working.
In Cyprus, you have old people who’ve never lived in a United Cyprus. The same mindset emerges. How can you expect people born into these circumstances to not despise the nation state they perceive to be oppressing them? Why should the be civil in the first place?
I’m not exactly sure what you’d expect when you isolate and corner a wounded animal, but no matter how many rules you apply to ensure good behaviour, you’re setting them up for a failure.
Israel’s delightful government are responsible for creating these conditions.
It’s a bit like not building homes for people or supporting with a cost of living crisis, then wondering why people sleep on the streets and start stealing food and warm clothing from people who don’t deserve to be stolen from.
Sure, we all agree that theft is wrong, but actually they’ve been manoeuvred into thinking that’s their only option for survival, or to change their fortunes.
Again, those terrorist acts were horrific, but it doesn’t take much of a leap of understanding to comprehend why they’d look at that course of action and see its merits.
The Israeli government could kneecap any need for this sort of thing overnight, but it is transparent they don’t want Palestinians to exist there.
It’s not acceptable to turn any debate on this matter into a Jewish existential crisis without looking at what they do to the Palestinian people. Racists will be racists, so the emphasis should be on actually removing reason to galvanise people. Like not breaking international law…
And if the problem is Hamas, that doesn’t explain continuing deaths in non-Hamas territory.
We would also accept that a government and its people are different.
Indiscriminately wracking up Russian civilian bodies would not be an acceptable course of action for Ukraine, despite what they’ve been through, and so what Israel is doing is clearly wrong.
And they’ve been warned as such, over and over.
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Important, I think, to separate the concept of Palestine from Gaza.
Gaza isn’t Palestine. It’s a part of Palestine, that physically separate from the West Bank, is far smaller than the West Bank, and with a much smaller population, and it’s run by an entirely separate - and opposed to - a political movement to that which runs the West Bank.
I think the recognition thing isn’t great - because there isn’t a central state that governs the whole territory that’s responsible for what goes on there - but we have allowed Israel carte blanch on the security front while also allowing to do nothing whatsoever on the political front. Its been 25+ years since there’s been any drive within Israel for a any kind of political solution - and quite simply that hasn’t worked.
So, new plan. We force their hand. To what degree it works, or doesn’t I don’t know, but whatever has been happening for the last 25 years hasn’t been working either.
Personally I’ve lost patience with Israel. I recognise that they’re in a difficult position, but they’ve done nothing to make it better for decades. they talk of nothing but securing their interests, while expecting everyone else to forgo their interests and support Israel’s (or perhaps more accurately, the bunch of crooks and bigots who make up Netenyahus’ government…)
I see that Israel has withdrawn their Ambassadors from Ireland, Norway and Spain as a result of those countries recognising Palestine - well, sod them.
I very much look forward to UK foreign and defence policy not being framed around having to juggle our relationships with ME states with their relationships with Israel.
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Israel withdrawing their diplomatic representation makes sense. It’s what the PRC threatened to do and is why no one formally recognises Taiwan as the Republic of China.
Yeh sure, it’s a diplomatic statement as old as time.
It is what it is, and arguably a sign of not being able to do much else if in isolation.
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