Probably an Iskander.
Just how much is Russia suffering?
They didn’t respond to Armenia’s call for help when under attack from Azerbaijan, and now in Syria the rebels are making substantial territorial gains, with Assad seemingly receiving very minimal Russian support. It appears as if Damascus is adopting a fortification approach - suggesting the regime believes there’s a real risk it will fall this time round.
If I was leading a country that had a territorial dispute with Russia right now, I’d be considering making a move.
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Considering Ukraine is more likely to be conquered by DPRK than the Nouveau USSR, it’s not a surprise there aren’t resources spare to support their pet despots.
This has escalated exceptionally quickly. Whilst everyone was watching the rebels from the north, a southern front opened up and it looks as though the Syrian regime may fall today, with a number of ministries being abandoned and rebels in the outskirts still advancing through Damascus.
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The problem is that this is not the conclusion to the Syrian civil war, merely another phase in the chaos that besets the region. The route to understanding events in Syria is to study the Lebanese civil war , 1975 onwards. It’s only a primer, as once you fully comprehend the issues, parties and factions you might be ready to tackle Syria which is Lebanon in Spades. Be warned though, don’t go looking for good guys and bad guys, there are only least worst options.
I remember when Beirut was a holiday destination and Syria seemed like the western part of Turkey. Now, I hesitate to call it post-apocalyptic as I fear the apocalypse is still in progress and has some way to run. I spent a lot of time in the region over a period of years, watching events. I can see no answers, no tidy conclusions , not even untidy ones. Only very difficult choices for all parties.
exmpa
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What seems to be emerging is a disruption of Iran’s objective to establish a Shia Crescent from the Arabian to Mediterranean Sea. This would isolate Hezbollah and Shia affiliates in Lebanon from their sponsors. Sunni states, including Turkey, would probably look favourably on this and it would probably garner at least tacit acceptance from Israel. However it would be over optimistic to see current events as the end of Iran’s ambitions in the region. Turmoil and chaos will be endemic for many years to come.
exmpa
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Some potential for more escalation today. Ukraine has claimed it was their security services that were behind the killing of Kirillov. Can’t exactly see Russia letting this one go.
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Russia failing nicely.
No proxy support from Syria now.
Loss of bases.
Loss of face and prestige.
All very good.
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So, talks are now under way, without Ukraine sitting at the table.
How the hell is Steve Witkoff or Mike Waltz in any way qualified to be sitting at the table. It’s utterly embarrassing for the US.
The only silver lining here is Marco Rubio. He’s good. Although I may disagree with his positions on matters, at least he’s extremely experienced.
We shall see what happens. But I don’t really like the look of this from the outside.
I think most of western Europe shares this view.
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Congratulations to the Soviet Union for winning the cold war:
Trump is parroting a revisionist narrative that the Russians will be pleased to hear. This triggered me to revise some previous research on Russian-NATO relations.
The real position of Russia is more along the lines of NATO being the instigator over a period of decades, and Ukraine is a useful asset to them with their desire join NATO a convenience.
Easiest to digestive summary that I can find easily is:
They also like to ignore that anything NATO and Ukraine have done in the 8 years prior to the recent invasion follows their actions in 2014.
They point to verbal statements in 1990 at the time of Gorbachev, and suggest that new members east of the lines drawn at the time contravene them. But those were made before the fall of the USSR and the geographical and political landscapes changed very rapidly within a couple of years.
It could be considered valid, to a point, but they’ve blessed some of that expansion and also signed the NRFA. They’ve been pretty bipolar about this for over 30 years.
This is Putin’s agenda, attempting to exert some power and gain an asset…gone wrong. Trump appears to be making himself a lifeline to it going right.
I think Trump’s legacy is that he will be seen as the Neville Chamberlin of the 21st century.
Russia has invaded or used proxies to invade Georgia, Chechnya and Moldova. Annexed the Crimea in 2014 and invaded the Donbas. Putin (the Russian state) also ordered the murder of Russian dissidents on British and German soil.
The Expansion east of NATO after 2022 was as a direct result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Putin is dangerous and untrustworthy. Nothing good will come as a result of Trumps new found friendship with his new bestie Putin.
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It’s scary how many people seem to believe this too. In one of the more concerning examples, a former JARIC Sqn Ldr from the Cold War (and a bit later) days holds exactly this view.
Well, the next one will be conscription! On daytime TV.
I think that’s unfair on Chaimberlain, most modern historians have a very positive view of him, understanding that appeasement was a way of preparing for war.
What Trump is doing is more akin to the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact with Ukraine playing the role of Poland in 1939.
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The time Chamberlin gained allowed the UK to rebuild the RAF and in particular the fighter squadrons and allow more time for the C3 to develop.
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Only took a Couple nations…
It did a lot, it allowed the Spitfire and Hurricane to be in Squadron service, it allowed the Dowding system to be completed and tested, it gave time for the BEF to be fully mechanised and it gave time for National Service to kick in and start training people ready to expand the army.
Now all of that is important, but what it did most of all was give the country time to be psychologically ready for war. The country wasn’t willing to go to war for Czechoslovakia, they were happy to believe Hitlers promises and being honest what he wanted at that time “unification of the German people” didn’t seem unreasonable to the man on the street. But once he broke the Munich agreement, everyone saw the truth that Chamberlain knew and from
That point on the public were behind rearmament and behind the government, so when it was Poland’ turn the public were ready,
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