Looks like it’s kicking off…
Jets airborne.
8 sites attacked by India…
Live on bbc now.
x2 nuclear powers go head to head.
Jeeeez.
1 Like
Great, another theater opening up in 2025.
Looking forward to seeing how Trump will somehow make it worse…
3 Likes
India: Stikes Targets
Pakistan: " This is a shameful and cowardly attack"
India: “we’re hitting terrorist infrastructure”
Ahhhh
the Israel Technique
More and more starting to feel like this
2 Likes
Same day we announce a major trade deal with India, bet that’s gone down well in Pakistan.
On particular as the UK will be restricting visas for those from Pakistan,
Live scenes from the Line of Control in Kashmir (content warning; swearing):
1 Like
We just confirmed a trade deal with India as well…
Tbh, I’m surprised it took this long for someone to attack Pakistan. Feels like they’ve been at the centre of a lot over the years even if not directly involved in any action.
2 Likes
Pakistan claiming to have shot down 5 Indian jets. If they have, I imagine that will escalate things. (Not saying they shouldn’t have done so though, self-defence, init)
1 Like
Very much playing a similar role to Iran in a lot of ways.
2 Likes
Iran possibly next to attack or be attacked, I reckon. Could even involve themselves with Pakistan, maybe?
Thinking with this India-Pakistan situation kicking off, there’s a chance nations are feeling a little more bold considering Russia-Ukraine and perhaps particularly Israel-Palestine have been allowed to rumble on.
Syria-Turkey is still going on in the background as well isn’t it?
Afghanistan are finding themselves in the middle of a storm again; Iraq isn’t exactly stable either.
Arab Spring scaled up to nation states? (Albeit not all Arab).
Assessments over there will be along the lines of “interventions have been minimal, US isn’t interested in playing police, NATO and UN is weakened as a result, Europe is stretched supporting Ukraine, Russia is a little preoccupied, China is either on side already, could be on side to win or build stronger allies (or if not then potentially reluctant to step in against someone as it tries to take advantage politically of trading opportunities elsewhere, but likely a source of purchased hardware either way).”.
4 Likes
Had a catchup with a mate from the FCDO - his assessment is EXACTLY as described. The US taking a step back from World Police and the subtle nuance of international relations (and, scarily, towards public statements threatening to “take over” various other nations - plus meddling with economics) is undoubtedly emboldening some States. His fagpacket threat analysis was that this may also embolden the non-state actors as well - which may prove as big a risk given the increased turmoil and conflict between States themselves.
Gosh darn it am I smart?
I have no doubt that non-state actors (NSA) will be more active in some spheres.
Iran and Pakistan aren’t natural allies, although they have worked together previously. That said, Iran may see an opportunity to weaken a potential regional adversary (India) by supporting the Pakistanis by mobilising proxy forces. This could get confusing - as the Saudis and Pakistanis are allies, but the Saudis and Iranians are rivals for political influence in the region.
It’s quite possible that the Saudis would want to give discrete support to Pakistan, rather than anything overt. So turning an eye to NSA originating in Saudi Arabia but travelling to Pakistan is a possibility.
What we really need to keep an eye on now is how China reacts, as they also lay a claim to (and administer parts of) Kashmir. I think it unlikely that we will see an escalation from them, however, given they do not have a natural population in the area that they current control (part of a glacier).
Interestingly, both India and Pakistan’s armed forces utilise Russian weapons. Could this conflict be a nice little money spinner for Putler at a time of a dying Russian economy?
1 Like
For 30 years they’ve focused more on political and economic soft power. Apart from selling stuff and helping in the background I’m not sure they’ll get directly involved.
What they might do is finally make a move for Taiwan if there’s enough chaos elsewhere.
Difficult to play economic games to disapprovingly sanction the country holding TSMC hostage… Assuming TSMC isn’t flattened by someone as the first Chinese boot touches the ground.
But what else, other than geopolitical chaos, could we expect from the decade that started with a global pandemic?
1 Like
Almost as if the 2020s are repeating the 1920s, which doesn’t bode well for the 2030s…
China could look to expand their area of control within Kashmir whilst India & Pakistan are distracted with one-another. It would be a relatively low-risk move for them.
1 Like
Neither will likely want to poke that tiger and try to stop them or retaliate.
You’re quite right from an international viewpoint, but from a domestic perspective neither government will want to be seen to be sitting back and allowing an occupation to happen.
1 Like
True, but I see a response being in line with whatever they assess as just short of provoking any major response back from the CCP. Rattle some sabres, fire a couple of pot shots, and bolster defence along the area, claim “stalemate” and carry on with their other nonsense.
Not sure China move in over there though. Regardless of historical claim, I don’t think sufficient value is there.