The problem is you have a large group of people in the West, let’s call them Morons who are happy to blame NATO for Russian aggression in the first place. (Jeremy Corbyn asking the Defence Secretary if he would consider removing our troops from Eastern Europe to “de-escalate” is one of many examples).
If the West had put troops into Ukraine such types would’ve been marching on Westminster.
Western troops deploying might’ve been enough to deter Putin, but the only way to find out was to do it and if he goes ahead anyway you really are at War with Russia.
I’m not an expert on the end of the Cold War but I’m seeing lots on like saying that NATO committed to defending Ukraine in 1991 in exchange for them giving up their Nuclear Weapons, anyone study that period enough to confirm that or not?
If I was an Eastern European nation I would be on the phone to Israel offering large amounts of cash for a few spare buckets of Instant Sunshine. Nothing beats an Independent Nuclear deterrent from making aggressors think twice.
The agreement on nukes was between Russia & Ukraine IIRC, with the former guaranteeing to respect territory and borders in return for surrendering the stockpile to Moscow.
It was a trilateral treaty.
Both the newly formed federation of russia and NATO agreed to defend ukraine. Thus giving them assurance to give up their Soviet Nuclear weapons.
Issue is, this agreement wasnt designed to protect Ukraine by one of the signatory parties, against another signatory party.
Moldova is very pro Russian. All this started when the Ukrainian people got rid of the pro Russian government under Viktor Yanukovych in early 2014. Putin Wasn.t happy and invaded the Crimea and the Eastern part of Ukraine where Yanukovuch has his power base.
I think that’s fair to say & I think peoples emotions of how they are coming to terms with this are all over the place. Yes there are a lot of people comparing to a WW2, yes there is worries if things escalate & what that means for us.
To be blunt if this goes proper south, any of our cadets who is over 16 could soon be being trained & in a conflict zone, fighting & dieing.
Speculation is semi-useful as it allows people to talk through their random thoughts & subject them to external scrutiny & logic.
Poland will be the Poland. It will allow Russia to scoop up the Baltic’s so a logical target, is a NATO member so would trigger article 5 and has a strong national identity which would resist Russian intervention.
Yes if things go really really south but the initial demographic will be effectively the cadets we are training now.
I’m speculating but I feel in a current day conflict with hypersonic cruise missiles you could have most uk bases struck simultaneously within about three hours by the time of mass mobilisation of the civilian population things will be mostly over.
