Archer seems to have done well in UKR (so has Caesar but the UKR like Archer more from what I’ve read).
So though have AS90 and its close relative, Poland’s Krab.
AS90 never got the longer tube it needed.
More broadly we need to decide if we are going to continue with the idea of a ‘heavy’ division (CH3, but then it really needs the upgraded Warrior reinstated, or an IFV Ajax, or Bradleys and tracked arty, like the K9 Thunder to go with it), or some form of medium set up with wheeled mostly wheeled. The previous government said we’d get a Boxer based 155 but that is still under development.
France has put everything on wheels save for Leclerc. For home defence or medium weight expeditionary that makes sense, or even ditch the tank and have a wheeled ATG / fire support on the lines of Italy’s Centauro. But they won’t hold the line against T-72Ms or Russia’s massed tube arty / MLRS.
The future move towards mass drone swarm strikes will blunt heavy armour, small hit-and-run groups using ATGM such as Javelin or NLAWS, using things such as quad bikes, small helicopters dropping off and picking up missile teams and drone operators even behind the FEBA.
The T 60 upwards are extremely vulnerable to drone strikes, as shown in many videos, in particular with the carousel shell system of loading using an autoloader. FPV and kamikaze drones are very effective.
Drone technology and operational doctrine is already integrated into British forces, and this video is four years old. The UKR are quick learners with this technology.
The Russians don’t appear to have evolved in their combat tactics, and the lack of training plus use of mass wave attacks leading to the loss of many soldiers in the field.
Biden has been crystal clear. If Russia uses nukes, even low yeild battlefield ones, then the US/NATO will obliterate the black sea fleet within an hour. Plus destroy all Russia postions within Ukraine. Using conventional weapons.
The other problem with civil defence (Nuclear) is that if its done well (Swiss example) …lots of people survive for two weeks …then you have a lot of people who need looking after with resources you simply wont have!
It’ll go the same way as every other time the West crossed one of Putin’s ‘red lines’, or when Ukraine attacked Crimea, Kursk, etc.
We might as well just go all in instead of this slow drawn-out ratcheting. It’s costing Ukraine lives and territory, and will cost us more in the longer term.
I wonder whether, for home defence, NLAW/Javalin/Starstreak teams in Boxer (or possibly something smaller and cheaper even, like a 6x6 Patria or France’s Griffon) would be good enough.
I think heavy armour still has its place, but our approach seems to be a mix of heavy and medium at present. Wheeled tube arty but tracked MLRS, tracked recce but wheeled APCs, and no IFV.
I suspect some very smart people are working on countering the drone threat, and in time armour will still be able to operate. The poor foot soldier, on the other hand, is very vulnerable.
Armour like infantry will always have a role as drones or artillery cannot take and hold ground. The Ukrainians weee working on vehicle mounted Brimstone as well.
Drones do bring a different dimension to the battlefield with flexibility of operation that the local environment has little effect upon. Armour in particular has difficulty with extremes of weather and ground conditions such as floods, mud and sand as we all know from history. Also they are relatively cheap in the terms of battlefield use compared to armour and are much more flexible. Maybe the RAFAC should consider drone training:wink:
