Putin says a lot of things.
Ultimately he can’t fight NATO and he knows it.
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He’s being saying that the real fight is with NATO, puppeteering Ukr since day dot.
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He has said so much rubbish that he doesnt even believe in what he has said or at least remember 
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The Swedes are clearly taking things more seriously than anyone else: https://rib.msb.se/filer/pdf/30874.pdf
Cause theyre the best at running countries.
Total Defence & Civil Bunkers… we are so far behind as to be comical.
Contrast that with what happened here when Rishi suggested a mild form of optional conscription.
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It’s common in Scandinavia. Everyone has to register but only a minority are selected and they’re the ones who positively engage with the process.
General on Radio 4 this morning said Ukraine cannot win unless the west helps more and the west cannot afford for then to lose. Also said war with Russia is coming.
Last night another Radio 4 programme said that if the US does pull out of NATO countries will have to spend between 4 and 5% of GDP on defence. Also said that the UK is very short of Arty. We have given most of what e got to Ukraine and not replaced it. Other areas where NATO will struggle without the US are staff officers with experience in running larger formations. Very few NATO countries have the skills and experience in running formations larger than Brigade size. The UK had this issue in WW2. It is easy to expand the Armed forces by conscription and build NCOs and junior officers, it is much more difficult to build senior leaders at Lt Col and above.
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This is the thing, I think most people hope for the best - but reading the tea leaves we don’t (at least overtly) seem to be preparing for the worst.
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Lets be clear.
We have loads and loads of waffley OF5s available.
And loads sat in “expert roles” in places like StratCom or Whitehall…
What we do not have are many OF5s / 6s experienced at leading Brigade or higher formations in the field.
We just dont have that level or mass of infantry etc capacity.
Would all have to be relearnt on the hoof.
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They are to replace the L118s in the British Army so all of Arty will be 155mm. Doesn’t get around the fact that the UK is currently very short of tubes at the moment.
We are also getting more of these.
Archer
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We are chronically under prepared.
We have almost zero civil defence in the UK.
MIL and civ police have been run down to minimal levels.
… we dont have a national feeling of togetherness anymore…
I.e. if poop hits fan, a LARGE minority would loot shops instead of helping others.
We are weak.
I fear successive uk govts have relied far to heavily on the concept of our strategic deterrance.
It only has to fail once and we have nothing.
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I think sadly the way things are going …any conventional weapons will be a waste of time.
Putin knows he cant win a conventional war …he has no sustainable future even if peace in Ukraine came tomorrow (and I don’t forsee that !)…he is a wanted man and he knows it …and there is the problem!
For him the only solution is (and I hope im wrong on this!) to push the red button first …
There will be no peace out there.
Even if Trump forces both parties to the table neither will agree. UKR will want its land back, pre-2014 invasion, RUS won’t accept that. If RUS won’t give back UKR capture land, UKR wont give back the Kursk area, RUS wont accept that.
The only way would be for Trump to remove US funding from UKR, but then that would never be forgotten by its allies the next time this happens.
Both parties are too deeply entrenched in historical boarder conflicts to allow a quick peaceful settlement.
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Can give one good guess as to who’s done this…
Wasn’t it said that an attack on the cables would be Art5 territory?
Seems RUS’s red lines aren’t the only ones being tested.
I’m sure it’ll lead to another strongly worded letter…
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