Gosh darn it am I smart?
I have no doubt that non-state actors (NSA) will be more active in some spheres.
Iran and Pakistan aren’t natural allies, although they have worked together previously. That said, Iran may see an opportunity to weaken a potential regional adversary (India) by supporting the Pakistanis by mobilising proxy forces. This could get confusing - as the Saudis and Pakistanis are allies, but the Saudis and Iranians are rivals for political influence in the region.
It’s quite possible that the Saudis would want to give discrete support to Pakistan, rather than anything overt. So turning an eye to NSA originating in Saudi Arabia but travelling to Pakistan is a possibility.
What we really need to keep an eye on now is how China reacts, as they also lay a claim to (and administer parts of) Kashmir. I think it unlikely that we will see an escalation from them, however, given they do not have a natural population in the area that they current control (part of a glacier).
Interestingly, both India and Pakistan’s armed forces utilise Russian weapons. Could this conflict be a nice little money spinner for Putler at a time of a dying Russian economy?
1 Like
For 30 years they’ve focused more on political and economic soft power. Apart from selling stuff and helping in the background I’m not sure they’ll get directly involved.
What they might do is finally make a move for Taiwan if there’s enough chaos elsewhere.
Difficult to play economic games to disapprovingly sanction the country holding TSMC hostage… Assuming TSMC isn’t flattened by someone as the first Chinese boot touches the ground.
But what else, other than geopolitical chaos, could we expect from the decade that started with a global pandemic?
1 Like
Almost as if the 2020s are repeating the 1920s, which doesn’t bode well for the 2030s…
China could look to expand their area of control within Kashmir whilst India & Pakistan are distracted with one-another. It would be a relatively low-risk move for them.
1 Like
Neither will likely want to poke that tiger and try to stop them or retaliate.
You’re quite right from an international viewpoint, but from a domestic perspective neither government will want to be seen to be sitting back and allowing an occupation to happen.
1 Like
True, but I see a response being in line with whatever they assess as just short of provoking any major response back from the CCP. Rattle some sabres, fire a couple of pot shots, and bolster defence along the area, claim “stalemate” and carry on with their other nonsense.
Not sure China move in over there though. Regardless of historical claim, I don’t think sufficient value is there.
Britain is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to an Indo-Pak conflict due to our demographics. There were full blown sectarian race riots in Leicester recently over the cricket match, just think what would happen in the case of a full blown war.
1 Like
Active war isn’t Chinas thing, they run the risk of being the same as Russia, exposed as a Paper Tiger, they haven’t fought a war since Korea and K don’t see them wanting to change that anytime soon.
We were discussing this at work earlier, we are already crippled by the Israel/Palestine protests, we can’t afford India/Pakistan at the same time it woukd be a nightmare!
3 Likes
I really don’t understand the logic in migrants attacking one another whilst in a third country.
If Britain & France somehow ended up fighting each other I’m not exactly going to go punching all my French volunteers over here.
Of course not,
you’d do it anyway because they’d be on their 20th Cig break before 12 O’clock
1 Like
They’re French. You don’t need an excuse to punch them.
Edit as I was beaten to it:
They’re volunteers. You don’t need an excuse to punch them.
They’re young and apparently have no basic life skills. You don’t need an excuse to punch them.
China fought a war against Vietnam in the 70s on the border and lost.
1 Like
Farmerdan showing his real name is Fighterdan 
1 Like
Wole up this morning. Looked at the news.
…
Jeeeeeez…
Annnnd ceasefire. Anyone fancy waving this playbook at Russia/ukraine
Besties again
That lasted a while…