Seen comments from snow blinding the pilots from the runway and thinking higher that they were, wind shear and a not so nice microburst. I’m still amazed no fatalities.
I have a friend who flys Canadian 737’s and he was just as amazed at how well the aircraft stayed in the one piece minus the wing and tail unit. I have told him he’s grounded but he told me not to worry…I’m gonna worry 
Well, here’s the clearest footage yet:
I am in awe of the fact anyone walked away from that. Let along everyone making it out alive.
Very hard landing. Gear collapse, wing strike then a roll. I think?
I’m not sure all walked out …I believe there were some with very serious / critical injuries!
Yes, you’re correct. As I said, I’m amazed that even a single person walked out of that crash. The fact that everyone is alive is incredible!
Little or no flare? Very difficult to judge ROD but looked steady, no major pitch changes, & not excessive descent rate.
Could it have been windshear?
Always a possibility - although haven’t seen any media saying that other pilots had reported wind shear on short finals.
Formal update due at 1700 UK time.
Canada crash latest: Authorities to give update after Delta plane crashes in Toronto - BBC News
I strongly agree with the commentators initial analysis! Amazing that anyone survived
Interesting that the fire chief said yesterday that “The runway was dry and there were no crosswind conditions”, yet the weather reports, including the one given to that aircraft, said there was a crosswind. Nothing that an aircraft like that shouldn’t be able to handle, though.
Looking at the brief video footage, the smoke and snow being blown on the ground (albeit close to the camera position) do seem to indicate a healthy headwind.
That matches the ADS-B data that shows a large (30+??) difference between IAS & ground speed.
The fire chief said something like clear runway / good conditions - the weather wasn’t perfect but nowhere as bad as landing at Goose Bay or Moscow in heavy, blowing snow!
Too much data, not enough information. The pilot statements will be key. Very low level rotor turbulence is unusual but possible. Mechanical failure of main gear (with / without heavier landing)?
Several airports where I would tell the other pilot - see that hangar / building? Wind is quite strong / gusty from that direction - watch out for very localised turbulence / IAS changes on short finals. Farnborough is one - very pretty curved roof buildings but the winds can really swirl off them with quite marked effect.
what i notice is the conditions are “clear” - there are blue skies and good visibility which goes against some reports i have seen that the pilots were in “white out” due to the conditions which suggested they would not have been able to see the runway until too late (perhaps believing they were higher that they were) - the footage above debunks that hypothesis in my opinion.
while the rate of decent looks normal (or at least not abnormal in my position of ignorance) i agree with @MikeJenvey there appears to be little to no flare which resulted in a hard impact on the runway, likely causing excessive shock loading to the gear which collapsed/failed.
what happened after to cause a roll is hard to say from that footage
I thought that bit was fairly obvious. Gear collapse for what ever reason led to a massive wing strike, shearing it off. At that point, the other wing is generating lift, which rolled the whole thing over.
The question is why the hard landing and why did the gear collapse!
Combination of, no flare, ground level gust, incorrect control input and the explosive force of the wing erupting are probably enought to account for the aircraft rolling…
What a cluster.
Going to go out on a limb and rekon thats a convo with tea, no biscuits, no tea, with a judge, coming up.
… because the oleo strut gave way due to a 5g impact lol
I shouldnt laugh but the pilot at the end asking atc if they saw the crash, how could you miss it.
And i get why they would ask air traffic
Supposition elsewhere…
Apparently there is a known issue with the MLG trunnion suffering micro cracks.
Parts are incredibly difficult to procure and it is an issue which is managed by an engineering solution?
Not sure how clear the runway was of snow …but the surrounding area appears to be a uniform coating , I wonder if depth perception is more difficult in those instances leading to a late / non existent round out?
Oh, it certainly is - just as bad when a narrow centre-line strip is swept clear rather than the whole runways. The rad alt is very useful to hear the heights being read out - when it almost a continuous flow, rather than a steady flow with very slight pauses, time to check back on the stick a little sooner!
I’ve heard that is true at Waddington as well with the old mission support hanger.