It’s certainly an interesting time to be watching current affairs. It almost feels as though war with Russia is inevitable; whether it’s caused by something accidental (eg the missiles that have landed in Poland or Romania) or more deliberately by the shooting down of NATO aircraft.
At the same time, we’re witnessing yet further reductions in UK military capabilities and resources, closing further estates and reducing the capacity of the military at an overall level.
Russia certainly haven’t showered themselves in glory through their military “abilities” but you do have to question just how much of a force we could front if push came to shove.
I think we, and NATO in general have become far far too reliant on America’s massive military budgets and assets. With America, we have no issues. But if someone like Trump gets into power again and America decides to leave NATO, it does leave us pretty open…
So was just thinking about this and what the consequences would have been.
If the missle has hit the rivet joint.
- the aircraft might be able to get a distress call out.
- the aircraft might have been able to relay that it had been attacked but again it might not have.
- the aircraft would crash leading to the loss of life of the majority of crew (one or two may have survived due to sea crash)
- RAF & the UK would be guess that a missile shot the aircraft down but not confirm as they wouldn’t be able to retrieve the wreckage
- Russia would deny shooting it down & would get to wreckage & flight recorder first. Russia would claim that crash likly due to RAF poor maintenance etc
Thing would have become more tense but it wouldn’t have resulted in further direct escalation from either side.
Other NATO states concerned bout being drawn in would use the loop hole of international air space as not quite meeting article 5 response as it wasn’t in the air space of a NATO nation.
UK takes action by expelling some Russian diplomats.
30 service personnel would have died but no real punitive action would have been taken.
The international airspace above the Black Sea might become a free-fire zone for air combat but stops short of a ground war conflict. With NATO.
That’s assuming that their wasn’t a Sentry or similar up, pretty sure that part of NATO airspace is monitored pretty same closely.
I think the rivett joint was doing the sentry role - I imagine Turkish military radar would have been monitoring.
At the time this happened I watched the skies over the Black Sea quite closely. There was almost always at least one Reaper circling at the same time.
I would assume they have a near-live down-link. So people on the ground are getting a live preview of what’s going on? And as @daws1159 says, at the time there was near 24/7 Sentry coverage. And I think this 135 was as well as, rather than instead of. The 24/7 Sentry coverage was normally over land, and within NATO airspace. This 135 was over the black sea in international air space.
The USA Contributes 80% of NATO, many members don’t even contribute 1%. Europe has little in the way of heavy lift or flight refuelling capability compared to the USAF. When the US decided to pull out of Afghanistan, that night there were 15+ C17s and tankers dispatched from the USA.
And telling Ivan just where everything is
Just seen the size of the ouchies in that Russian submarine. Cant see her doing that whole “floating” thing anymore!!!
So given one of the parties has protection guarantees from Russia, should we include the new Armenia/Azerbaijan conflict in this thread too?
Bet they are thinning out as we speak.
Well, the Russian peacekeepers literally did nothing. A ceasefire has been agreed today that disarms the Armenian side and effectively ends the existence of the Armenian-led administration in the area.
Apparently both Armenia and Kazakhstan are now looking at quitting the CSTO (Russia’s NATO).
Poland, in a somewhat surprising move, are the first ally to choose to stop arming Ukraine: Poland no longer supplying weapons to Ukraine as grain row escalates - BBC News