I think the telling thing NOT reflected in these crude raw numbers, is our churn of CFAVs. The collective loss of skills, knowledge and experience over this time has, from my perspective, been massive - and far more concerning than a profile of CFAV headcount.
A more useful metric (which, of course, we won’t ever a sight of as end users!) would be to see a profile of staff by length of service - how many are “new” (less than 2 years service), how many have served 2-5 or 5-10 or 10+ years of service, for example. And it’s not like we can’t do this. Bader holds this granular level of data - we just need to interrogate it effectively.
Whilst there will always be a degree of natural wastage (and people leaving taking with them their invaluable (sometimes!) experience and knowledge) i do get the vibe that this has accelerated significantly post-covid. More than simply “losing the ghosts” on the system - but losing CFAVs with 20-30 years experience.
In some ways, this is arguably a good thing; some people simply cannot manage or keep pace with HQACs rate of change. But for others at the coal face, losing these staff members is a tragic loss! They would be the ones who’ve built up established relationships with the stakeholders which HQAC don’t see; the community links with the local council, with the other volunteer organisations, the charity links, the ones who could take cadets flying at short notice, or who’ve been around so long they were part of the fixtures and fittings at squadrons, able to open up for RFCA contractors, or embedded in the local RAF Stations mess because they served there when Dougie Bader was still kicking around, or the ones who had the established and trusted links with the local service charities - forged over many years of working together. It’s these losses which don’t necessarily get looked at or talked about when looking at those raw numbers.
I’m also seeing the “new blood” not staying as long as they have previously. Shiny new baby officers, ex cadets, straight into commission, straight into squadron and straight into command without much time to develop and burn out within 3-5 years. And with 20% less staff available, that’s less people for coaching and mentoring these new staff, fostering, nurturing and building a sustainable staff member for the now - and for the future.
So whilst HQAC might be a little worried that our numbers have dropped by 21% overall - i’d be far more worried at the loss of skilled and experienced mentors, coaches and leaders at the grass roots level and what HQAC are planning to do to address retention rather than recruitment to stop it slipping further.