China

The Tiananmen square square massacre happens… the world does nothing.

They imprison and torture millions of Muslims… the world does nothing.

They remove libiterties and annex Hong Kong… the world does nothing.

They fight India in a brutal battle with sticks and stones, and the world does nothing…

Taiwan…

This far…no further. Today we must draw a line in the sand.

The descent, civilised world must not allow China to dictate terms any more. They are unfit.

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The problem is the only way to stop China doing what it wants would be full scale war, invasion and regime change. That’s going to be costly in terms of money and lives lost, and would almost certainly result in a conflict that makes WW2 look like a minor disagreement. I can’t see an international alliance forming of the size that would be required to conquer China, nor would the public put up with the losses for long.

That’s before we consider the nuclear element. I wouldn’t trust Dementia Joe or Winnie the Pooh to keep their finger off the trigger in a moment of madness and once the first one is fired then we are all screwed.

I would love to see their wings clipped but diplomacy just won’t work

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The problem Is that they are too tied into the Western Economy for sanctions to be a viable option.

The solution to things like Taiwan would be that:
a) Taiwan actually declares independance
b) Taiwan is immediately recognised and given numerous mutual defence agreements.
c) The US in particular forward deploys lots of big grey boats. Enough that the Chinese can’t make a move without causing US casualties. They might be arrogant but they are rationale and wouldn’t want WW3.

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The civilised world needs to urgently recognise Taiwan, a parliamentary democracy as a Sovereign nation.

At the same time as signing mutual defence pacts.

We stand now. Or face worse later.

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You can’t recognise them when they haven’t actually declared Independance.

That’s a chicken and egg thing though. They are never going to risk it without knowing that the big players will back them up and recognise them.

By every known metric they are independant.

Yes, but they haven’t declared themselves independent, until they do so they are still a breakaway province.

They know that if they do most in their region are going to, the Americans would and so would Japan,Australia etc. The only regional power that might think twice if the ROK and considering the American presence that they have in country they probably would.

I don’t think the Septics would though.

The only way to clip China’s wings is economically, ie stop ordering things made in China, stop them investing in other countries, but people are tied to things made in China and like the colour of their money. It’s a bit like post Soviet Russia, people came overseas with lots and lots of money to invest and no one complained enough to stop. No one really complained about how Soviet Russia treated their own people from the late 1910s and even Germany in the 30s, no one really did anything to stop what was going on there.
Political and or economic sanctions won’t make any sort of difference, as in many instances they hold the whip hand.
Let’s be honest no one is without sin, so unable to cast the first stone.
We have to poke up with it or do away with things from China.

China aren’t going to risk WW3 with the West because of the economical impact it would have. They’re busy enjoying flexing their muscles whilst becoming the greatest economic power in the world, but I agree more needs to be done to secure Taiwan by demonstrating their independence will be protected, although they need to declare this first.

Only way I see a major conflict starting in that region is accidentally which then escalates.

One obvious route would be to bring them into AUKUS and put them into the Nuclear Submarine game. The Chinese would be deeply unhappy but it would send a message.

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That was said of Germany in the 1900s. It didn’t stop WW1.

To be fair, Germany didn’t start it, they just had a load of mutual defence pacts, same as everyone else, which they upheld.

I always thought it odd that Germany got most of the blame for starting WW1, and Austria seems to have gotten away with it.

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I think a big part of that certainly from a British perspective is that they initiated the war by invading a neutral country who weren’t part of any of the alliances. Upholding Belgian neutrality was our reason for getting involved, we therefore make a big deal about that part of it.

Maybe from a solely British perspective, but that also carried through to he treaty of Versailles, I can see why the Americans blamed Germany for their entry, but the French as well?

The French only really had to fight the Germans and they had to fight them in France. (Plus they hadn’t really forgiven Germany for winning the Franco-Prussian War in 1870).

Additionally everyone knew that the Alliance system was about containing Germany, when war came it’s no surprise that the country they were trying to contain got the blame.

And back to China with that one sentence.

.
They wont stop with Taiwan.
It will be the outer islands after that.
Maybe Japan.
Certainly NE India.

No one wants war. But we must be prepared for it.

A separate thought is China has roughly 30 years before its demographic time bomb starts to really bite.

(Aging population, male/female split and pensioner to worker ratio)

Its evident now, but held in check by a large young population.
Roll forward 30 years and they will have big issues.

If they are going to make a big move, it will be before then.